【美國加息】聯儲局加息0.75厘 稱續加息至「足夠限制性」水平（附議息聲明全文）

美國聯儲局結束一連兩天的議息會議，宣布加息0.75厘，符合市場預期，聯邦基金利率升至3.75厘至4厘區間，是連續第4次加息0.75厘，為2008年以來最高水平，今年已累計加息375個基點。儲局聲明暗示可能放慢加息步伐。

據聯邦公開市場委員會(FOMC)聲明：就業增長強勁，失業率保持在低位，儲局需要繼續加息，直到利率達到足夠限制性，以使通脹隨時間推移回落至2%水平。

不過，在聲明的新句子中，儲局表示，將在制定政策時會考慮貨幣政策累積緊縮，貨幣政策影響經濟和通脹的滯後效應，以及經濟和金融發展。市場對這句話的解讀就是聯儲局暗示未來將放緩加息。

據美聯儲掉期交易顯示，12月聯儲局加息0.75厘的概率降至30%的水平。

聯邦基金利率期貨顯示，美聯儲本輪終端利率將在2023年5月達到4.97厘。

分析員評論聯儲利率決議稱，聲明中的新內容偏鴿派，指聯儲局要關注「累積緊縮程度」和「貨幣政策對經濟活動和通脹的影響的滯後性」就是最好的證明。而稱早就知道，聯儲局一直在追求「足夠限制性」的利率水平。

主席鮑威爾在記者會表示，金融環境已大幅收緊，但仍需要看到通脹顯著回落，未來利率水平有巨大不確定性，數據顯示，終端利率將會高於此前預期。他強調，在某個時間放鬆加息步伐是合適，可能是下次會議或之後，暫未有任何決定，也不認為過度加息。現時加息速度已不再重要，最快在12月會放慢加息幅度，很可能會在12月討論縮小加息幅度的問題，希望達到實際正利率水平，但他指，歷史警告不要過早放鬆政策，考慮暫停加息仍為時過早。

======議息聲明全文======

Recent indicators point to modest growth in spending and production. Job gains have been robust in recent months, and the unemployment rate has remained low. Inflation remains elevated, reflecting supply and demand imbalances related to the pandemic, higher food and energy prices, and broader price pressures.

Russia's war against Ukraine is causing tremendous human and economic hardship. The war and related events are creating additional upward pressure on inflation and are weighing on global economic activity. The Committee is highly attentive to inflation risks.

The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. In support of these goals, the Committee decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate to 3-3/4 to 4 percent. The Committee anticipates that ongoing increases in the target range will be appropriate in order to attain a stance of monetary policy that is sufficiently restrictive to return inflation to 2 percent over time. In determining the pace of future increases in the target range, the Committee will take into account the cumulative tightening of monetary policy, the lags with which monetary policy affects economic activity and inflation, and economic and financial developments. In addition, the Committee will continue reducing its holdings of Treasury securities and agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities, as described in the Plans for Reducing the Size of the Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet that were issued in May. The Committee is strongly committed to returning inflation to its 2 percent objective.

In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook. The Committee would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee's goals. The Committee's assessments will take into account a wide range of information, including readings on public health, labor market conditions, inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and financial and international developments.

Voting for the monetary policy action were Jerome H. Powell, Chair; John C. Williams, Vice Chair; Michael S. Barr; Michelle W. Bowman; Lael Brainard; James Bullard; Susan M. Collins; Lisa D. Cook; Esther L. George; Philip N. Jefferson; Loretta J. Mester; and Christopher J. Waller.

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