【美國加息】儲局加息0.75厘符預期 年底料升至4.4厘

宏觀解讀 02:00 2022/09/22

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美國聯儲局宣布加息0.75厘,符合市場預期。聯邦基金利率區間加至3厘至3.25厘,利率水平升至2008年以來新高。儲局最新上調了利率的預測,將今年利率中位數由3.4厘上調至4.4厘,2023年及2024年分別為4.6厘及3.9厘,此前6月的預測為3.8厘及3.4厘,長期利率中位數維持2.5厘。

據聲明指,近期指標表明支出和生產溫和增長。勞動市場近幾個月來表現強勁,失業率亦保持低位。通脹仍然居高不下,反映基於疫情、食品和能源價格上漲以及更廣泛的價格壓力,令供需失衡。同時,俄烏戰爭創造額外的通脹上行壓力,並正影響全球經濟活動,委會員高度關注通脹風險。

聲明重申,長遠會盡用實現就業最大化及通脹回到2%的目標,故委員會決定調升利率到3至3.25厘,而且持續加息是合適的。另外,儲局會繼續減持美國國債及按揭抵押證券(MBS)。

美聯儲FOMC 9月點陣圖顯示,美聯儲預計在2022年,至少有一次加息0.75厘,以及一次加息0.5厘,直到2024年才會降息。

美聯儲FOMC經濟預期:2022、2023、2024年底GDP增速預期中值分別為0.2%,1.2%,1.7%;相對6月預期分別為1.7%,1.7%,1.9%。2025年底GDP增速預期中值為1.8%。

議息聲明全文:

Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement

Recent indicators point to modest growth in spending and production. Job gains have been robust in recent months, and the unemployment rate has remained low. Inflation remains elevated, reflecting supply and demand imbalances related to the pandemic, higher food and energy prices, and broader price pressures.

Russia's war against Ukraine is causing tremendous human and economic hardship. The war and related events are creating additional upward pressure on inflation and are weighing on global economic activity. The Committee is highly attentive to inflation risks.

The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. In support of these goals, the Committee decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate to 3 to 3-1/4 percent and anticipates that ongoing increases in the target range will be appropriate. In addition, the Committee will continue reducing its holdings of Treasury securities and agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities, as described in the Plans for Reducing the Size of the Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet that were issued in May. The Committee is strongly committed to returning inflation to its 2 percent objective.

In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook. The Committee would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee's goals. The Committee's assessments will take into account a wide range of information, including readings on public health, labor market conditions, inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and financial and international developments.

Voting for the monetary policy action were Jerome H. Powell, Chair; John C. Williams, Vice Chair; Michael S. Barr; Michelle W. Bowman; Lael Brainard; James Bullard; Susan M. Collins; Lisa D. Cook; Esther L. George; Philip N. Jefferson; Loretta J. Mester; and Christopher J. Waller.

 

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美國聯儲局開始一連兩天議息會議,並將於香港時間周四凌晨2時公布議息結果,隨後舉行記者會。投資者留意四大不可不知要點。

1.美國加息幅度:

根據最新利率期貨顯示,加息0.75厘的機會率為82%,至於加息1厘的機會率則為18%,較1周前的逾30%有所回落。

2.利率點陣圖:

儲局與會者將公布今年及明年及長遠的利率預測,究竟年底中性或4厘預期水平會否改變?

CNBC調查顯示,平均受訪者認為儲局本月將加息0.75厘,使聯邦基金利率達到3.1厘,並預計將繼續加息,直到2023年3月達到4.26厘才見頂,較此前調查的預測高0.43厘左右。

市場預計,儲局主席鮑威爾將強調央行將盡一切努力對抗通脹,並且不太可能很快逆轉加息。貝萊德全球固定收益首席投資官Rick Rieder形容,鮑威爾在身後豎起上面寫著「通脹必須降下來」的佈告欄,認為他會說話強硬。

花旗經濟學家表示,儲局若需要在通脹鬥爭中變得更積極,美息最終甚至可能超過5厘。高盛經濟學家表示,預計儲局官員的預測中值將顯示年底基金利率為4厘至4.25厘,並在2023年再次上調至4.25厘至4.5厘。

3.經濟預測:

儲局對經濟預測,會直接影響委員對未來加息幅度,究竟如何看待核心通脹?以及何時見頂?以及對勞工市場看法。

4.議息記者會:

鮑威議主持的記者會,投資者會憑鮑威爾的隻字片語尋求啟示,若鮑威爾不及預期的鷹派,道指自jackson hole後急瀉,隨時反彈1000點的幅度。

【石Sir一周前瞻及異動股】中國財險、 澳博控股、 浙江世寶

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【美國加息】安聯:聯儲局別無選擇、本周至少加厘0.75厘 美國家庭正用儲蓄來支持消費

【美國加息】美國前財長薩默斯:聯儲局最終或加息至4.3厘以上

責任編輯︰梁浩碩

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