【Jackson Hole】鮑威爾決心遏通脹　警告加息打擊通脹會為家庭和企業帶來痛苦

美國聯儲局主席鮑威爾（Jerome Powell）即將於全球央行年會Jackson Hole上發言。他表示，7月份議息會議是第二次增加75個基點，他當時指在下次（9月）會議上，另一次異常大的增加可能是適當的，而目前會議間歇期已過一半，在9月會議上的決定將取決於傳來的全部數據和不斷變化的前景。在某些時候，隨著貨幣政策立場的進一步收緊，放慢加息可能會變得合適。（At some point, as the stance of monetary policy tightens further, it likely will become appropriate to slow the pace of increases.）

鮑威爾表示，聯邦公開市場委員會目前聚焦於將通脹帶回落到2%目標。價格穩定是聯儲的責任，亦是美國經濟的基石，如果沒有價格穩定，將無法實現持續強的勞動力市場條件，而使所有人受益。

他續稱，要恢復價格穩定，將需要一些時間，亦要有力地使用工具，使供需達更好的平衡。降低通脹可能需要一個持續的低於趨勢的增長期。此外，勞動力市場條件很可能會有一些軟化。雖然更高的利率、更慢的增長和更軟的勞動力市場條件，將使通脹下降，但它們也將給家庭和企業帶來一些痛苦。這些都是降低通脹的不幸代價。但若不能恢復價格穩定，將意味着更大的痛苦。

7月較低的通脹讀數未可確信通脹正在下降

鮑威爾認為，美國經濟顯然正從去年的歷史高增長率中放緩，這反映經濟在大流行的衰退後的重啟。他指美國經濟繼續顯示出強勁的基本勢頭，勞動力市場尤其強勁，但它顯然失去了平衡，對工人的需求大大超過供應。通脹率遠高於2%，且高通脹率續在經濟中蔓延。7月份較低的通脹讀數是值得歡迎，但單月的改善遠未達到委員會在確信通脹正在下降之前所需要看到的程度。

他說，聯儲正有目的地，將政策立場轉移到一個足以限制通脹率恢復到2%的水平。目前由於通脹遠高於2%，勞動力市場極其緊張，對長期中性的估計「不是一個可以停止或暫停的地方」。

他強調，恢復價格穩定可能需要在一段時間內保持限制性政策立場，歷史紀錄強烈告誡，不要過早放鬆政策。聯儲局的貨幣政策審議和決定，建立在從1970年代和1980年代的高而且波動的通脹，以及從過去四分之一世紀的低而穩定的通脹中了解到的通脹動態。

高通脹愈久　對更高通脹的預期愈可能根深蒂固

鮑威爾認為，聯儲需要調節需求，使之與供應更好地保持一致，他們致力於完成此項工作。目前，較長期的通脹預期似乎仍很穩固，而回顧1970年代，隨着通脹攀升，對高通脹的預期在家庭和企業的經濟決策中變得根深蒂固，通脹率愈高，人們就愈期待它保持在高位，並將這種信念納入工資和定價決策。正如前主席沃爾克在1979年大通脹的高峰期所說的那樣，「通脹有部分是靠自己養活，所以回到一個更穩定和更有生產力的經濟的部分工作，必須是打破對通脹預期的控制（Inflation feeds in part on itself, so part of the job of returning to a more stable and more productive economy must be to break the grip of inflationary expectations）」。現時通脹幾乎吸引了所有人的注意力，這突出了今天的一個特殊風險。目前的高通脹持續愈久，對更高通脹的預期就愈有可能變得根深蒂固。

他續指，歷史表明，降低通脹的就業成本可能會隨時間推移而增加，因為高通脹在工資和價格設定中變得更根深蒂固。1980年代初沃爾克成功消除了通脹，在此之前的15年內，多次降低通脹的嘗試都失敗了。最終需要一個漫長的非常限制性的貨幣政策來阻止高通脹，並開始將通脹率降低到去年春天之前的低水平和穩定水平的過程，「我們的目標是通過現在的堅決行動來避免這種結果」。

【石Sir一周前瞻及異動股】逢周一港股交易日為你分析

相關文章：

【Jackson Hole】亞特蘭大聯儲行長博斯蒂克：傾向9月加息0.5厘

【Jackson Hole】費城聯備銀行行長哈克：調高利率後不需馬上再減息

【Jackson Hole】堪薩斯城聯儲銀行行長喬治：不排除加息至5厘　利率仍未升至對經濟構成壓力的程度 

儲局主席鮑威爾全文：

Thank you for the opportunity to speak here today.

At past Jackson Hole conferences, I have discussed broad topics such as the ever-changing structure of the economy and the challenges of conducting monetary policy under high uncertainty. Today, my remarks will be shorter, my focus narrower, and my message more direct.

The Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) overarching focus right now is to bring inflation back down to our 2 percent goal. Price stability is the responsibility of the Federal Reserve and serves as the bedrock of our economy. Without price stability, the economy does not work for anyone. In particular, without price stability, we will not achieve a sustained period of strong labor market conditions that benefit all. The burdens of high inflation fall heaviest on those who are least able to bear them.

Restoring price stability will take some time and requires using our tools forcefully to bring demand and supply into better balance. Reducing inflation is likely to require a sustained period of below-trend growth. Moreover, there will very likely be some softening of labor market conditions. While higher interest rates, slower growth, and softer labor market conditions will bring down inflation, they will also bring some pain to households and businesses. These are the unfortunate costs of reducing inflation. But a failure to restore price stability would mean far greater pain.

The U.S. economy is clearly slowing from the historically high growth rates of 2021, which reflected the reopening of the economy following the pandemic recession. While the latest economic data have been mixed, in my view our economy continues to show strong underlying momentum. The labor market is particularly strong, but it is clearly out of balance, with demand for workers substantially exceeding the supply of available workers. Inflation is running well above 2 percent, and high inflation has continued to spread through the economy. While the lower inflation readings for July are welcome, a single month's improvement falls far short of what the Committee will need to see before we are confident that inflation is moving down.

We are moving our policy stance purposefully to a level that will be sufficiently restrictive to return inflation to 2 percent. At our most recent meeting in July, the FOMC raised the target range for the federal funds rate to 2.25 to 2.5 percent, which is in the Summary of Economic Projection's (SEP) range of estimates of where the federal funds rate is projected to settle in the longer run. In current circumstances, with inflation running far above 2 percent and the labor market extremely tight, estimates of longer-run neutral are not a place to stop or pause.

July's increase in the target range was the second 75 basis point increase in as many meetings, and I said then that another unusually large increase could be appropriate at our next meeting. We are now about halfway through the intermeeting period. Our decision at the September meeting will depend on the totality of the incoming data and the evolving outlook. At some point, as the stance of monetary policy tightens further, it likely will become appropriate to slow the pace of increases.

Restoring price stability will likely require maintaining a restrictive policy stance for some time. The historical record cautions strongly against prematurely loosening policy. Committee participants' most recent individual projections from the June SEP showed the median federal funds rate running slightly below 4 percent through the end of 2023. Participants will update their projections at the September meeting.

Our monetary policy deliberations and decisions build on what we have learned about inflation dynamics both from the high and volatile inflation of the 1970s and 1980s, and from the low and stable inflation of the past quarter-century. In particular, we are drawing on three important lessons.

The first lesson is that central banks can and should take responsibility for delivering low and stable inflation. It may seem strange now that central bankers and others once needed convincing on these two fronts, but as former Chairman Ben Bernanke has shown, both propositions were widely questioned during the Great Inflation period.1 Today, we regard these questions as settled. Our responsibility to deliver price stability is unconditional. It is true that the current high inflation is a global phenomenon, and that many economies around the world face inflation as high or higher than seen here in the United States. It is also true, in my view, that the current high inflation in the United States is the product of strong demand and constrained supply, and that the Fed's tools work principally on aggregate demand. None of this diminishes the Federal Reserve's responsibility to carry out our assigned task of achieving price stability. There is clearly a job to do in moderating demand to better align with supply. We are committed to doing that job.

The second lesson is that the public's expectations about future inflation can play an important role in setting the path of inflation over time. Today, by many measures, longer-term inflation expectations appear to remain well anchored. That is broadly true of surveys of households, businesses, and forecasters, and of market-based measures as well. But that is not grounds for complacency, with inflation having run well above our goal for some time.

If the public expects that inflation will remain low and stable over time, then, absent major shocks, it likely will. Unfortunately, the same is true of expectations of high and volatile inflation. During the 1970s, as inflation climbed, the anticipation of high inflation became entrenched in the economic decisionmaking of households and businesses. The more inflation rose, the more people came to expect it to remain high, and they built that belief into wage and pricing decisions. As former Chairman Paul Volcker put it at the height of the Great Inflation in 1979, "Inflation feeds in part on itself, so part of the job of returning to a more stable and more productive economy must be to break the grip of inflationary expectations."2

One useful insight into how actual inflation may affect expectations about its future path is based in the concept of "rational inattention."3 When inflation is persistently high, households and businesses must pay close attention and incorporate inflation into their economic decisions. When inflation is low and stable, they are freer to focus their attention elsewhere. Former Chairman Alan Greenspan put it this way: "For all practical purposes, price stability means that expected changes in the average price level are small enough and gradual enough that they do not materially enter business and household financial decisions."4

Of course, inflation has just about everyone's attention right now, which highlights a particular risk today: The longer the current bout of high inflation continues, the greater the chance that expectations of higher inflation will become entrenched.

That brings me to the third lesson, which is that we must keep at it until the job is done. History shows that the employment costs of bringing down inflation are likely to increase with delay, as high inflation becomes more entrenched in wage and price setting. The successful Volcker disinflation in the early 1980s followed multiple failed attempts to lower inflation over the previous 15 years. A lengthy period of very restrictive monetary policy was ultimately needed to stem the high inflation and start the process of getting inflation down to the low and stable levels that were the norm until the spring of last year. Our aim is to avoid that outcome by acting with resolve now.

These lessons are guiding us as we use our tools to bring inflation down. We are taking forceful and rapid steps to moderate demand so that it comes into better alignment with supply, and to keep inflation expectations anchored. We will keep at it until we are confident the job is done.

記者：胡學能